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Briefing Report

Japan's Space Development Policy

Commissioner, Space Activities Commission
Dr. Hiroki Matsuo

[Science and Technology] November 25 , 2005

Since the Hayabusa is very much in the news at the moment, today I would like to discuss the space science connected with this probe and after that talk about Japan’s space development in general. Actually, although I said I would talk about space science, my special fields are orbital mechanics and mission analysis.

Involvement in Space Development
Japan’s space development is said to have started 50 years ago with its first experiment involving the launch of a small pencil-type rocket by Doctor Hideo Itokawa. I entered this field when I joined the research laboratory of Doctor Itokawa a few years after that experiment. It was just around that time that the Mu rocket project was starting with the aim of launching Japan’s first artificial satellite. I was involved in that project from the beginning. In 1970, in a preliminary test, Japan’s first artificial satellite, the Ohsumi, was launched. I was at the launching site at that time, so you can say that I am something of an old hand. Now, you cannot just launch a satellite all of a sudden, so my job was to make various computations about the rocket trajectories. At that time, when electronic computers were just beginning to appear, it took five or six hours to do the calculations for a flight of about five minutes.

Institute of Space and Aetronautical Science (ISAS)
I carried out this kind of work at the Institute of Space and Aetronautical Science, which was then a branch of the University of Tokyo. When the work expanded beyond the scale of this body, however, it went independent, and in 1981 an institute going by the same name of the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science [ISAS] was established under the direct jurisdiction of the then Ministry of Education. The ISAS had a staff of only 300 persons, but I think it was a very unusual institute in which work went ahead through cooperation in the same workplace between scientists, who gave motivation to research as a whole, and engineers who made that research possible.

The Two Major Fields of Japan’s Space Science: Space Astronomy and Solar System Science
Space science in Japan advanced mainly through the ISAS and consists broadly of two fields – space astronomy, physics and solar system exploration.

(1) Space astronomy
The first, space astronomy, makes use of the fact that once out into space, you can gaze far into space without the interference of the atmosphere. In this field, you can observe through various wave lengths, and in particular Japan is said to be top of the world in the area of x-ray astronomy. Also, Japan is gradually expanding the wave-length territory, and now methods of observing the universe through infrared astronomy and radio astronomy are being added to the lineup. For example, in the area of radio astronomy, the Haruka radio astronomy satellite was the first in the world to use space VLBI [very long baseline interferometry]. The idea here is that if you have two telescopes on the ground and make an observation by combining them, you would be able to get results as if you were using one telescope with a diameter of the distance of the two. The Haruka took one of these telescopes into space and achieved high resolution. Japan was the first to achieve this.

(2) Solar system science
Various areas are being developed in the field of space astronomy, led by x-ray technology, but the new field is solar system exploration. In the case of astronomy, you look far into space and make various speculations from the results. In the case of solar system exploration, you actually go there. This field is expected to achieve extremely rapid development from now on, and Japan hopes to be active here as well. In the case of astronomy, to an extent the direction is decided. You want to make observations as far as possible and with the highest resolution possible. In the case of solar system exploration, however, there are countless places you can go to and countless things you can do once you get there. It is very difficult, because just having the objective of trying to solve the riddles of the solar system does not automatically give you any direction as to where to go.

Trail-Blazing Fields From Now On
In these circumstances, Japan has put the focus on three areas – observation of the Moon, observation of small bodies, and observation of the atmosphere and magnetosphere of the planets – and wants to make efforts to develop these areas. For this purpose, engineering methods are extremely important, so, as an introduction to the Hayabusa, I would like to explain briefly the history of our activities up to this point.

Japan’s Space Exploration up to the Hayabusa
It was as a result of the exploration of Halley’s Comet that free navigation and travel within the solar system became possible for Japan. Halley’s Comet comes close to Earth once every 77 years, and it did so from 1985 to 1986. This was an excellent opportunity, and many countries became very enthusiastic about observing the comet. Well, I say many, actually there were not so many nations that had the capability to do so. At that time the parties that devoted the most efforts were the European Space Agency [ESA] and the then Soviet Union. The United States scrambled to get on board when it saw other countries moving ahead. And then there was Japan. Japan decided to participate as a first experiment. In the end, these four parties coordinated their activities in sending probes close to Halley’s Comet. I think it can be said that it was through this project that Japan acquired the capability to travel freely in the space of the solar system. There is now a large 64-meter deep-space antenna in Nagano Prefecture. This antenna was built at that time.

That project, participated in by the four parties, was a success. I think it is a good example of international cooperation going extremely well. After that, in order to continue cooperative relations in the field of space science, the Inter-Agency Consultative Group [IACG] was established, and it continued for a long time. The initial objective was just the observation of Halley’s Comet, but after that the four parties changed the theme and made progress while cooperating. Since it was an interagency rather than an intergovernment framework, a flexible operation was possible. Each agency had its own plans but coordinated successfully with the others. I think it was a very effective group.

Golden Age of Scientific Satellites
In this way, Japan came to possess the capability of interplanetary flight. Unfortunately, however, interplanetary missions came to a bit of a standstill after that. After the observation of Halley’s Comet, Japan launched a large number of scientific satellites. And because missions had to be accomplished with satellites in various fields, the turn of the new field of interplanetary flight just did not come around. There was also the fact that after the Challenger accident, the United States was not able to put much effort into scientific satellites. During this period, although there were no large-scale projects, Japan gradually earned marks in various fields.

Larger Missions than Scientific Satellites: Full-Scale Exploration of the Solar System
Encouraged by the results of Japan’s space science during this period, people began to call for a slightly bigger mission, and so Japan set about the development of the M-V rocket. It was due to this rocket that somewhat more full-fledged interplanetary flights and solar system exploration became possible.

(1) Nozomi Spacecraft
The first experiment here was the Nozomi spacecraft, which was launched in 1998 bound for Mars. This was Japan’s first spacecraft for exploration of the solar system, and it was supposed to circle Mars for observation. Unfortunately, however, some malfunctioning occurred, and although we struggled to the last, in the end we were unable to put it into orbit and had to give up.

The Hayabusa actually is an extension of this project as an interplanetary mission. Earlier I said that the observation of small bodies is one of our priority plans. Well, the Hayabusa was planned with the objective of observing a small body. I will go into detail about this project later.

(2) Selene Project
The Hayabusa is currently in flight, but there are also some missions that will happen fairly soon. One of these is the Selene project. The Selene is a satellite to orbit the Moon. Some people say that observation of the Moon has already been carried out by the Apollo missions, but from the viewpoint of science, there are still many things that we do not understand, including especially the far side of the Moon.

This mission will involve launching a satellite to circle the Moon and carry out various types of observation of the whole surface of the Moon. The person who is in charge of this project says confidently that if this observation can be completed, the resulting data on the Moon’s surface should become a global standard. One more feature of this mission is that it began as a joint project of ISAS and the National Space Development Agency of Japan [NASDA]. (Now these bodies belong to the same organization. In 2003 ISAS, which was devoted to space and planetary research, NASDA, which was devoted to the development of large-scale rockets, satellites, and the International Space Station, and the National Aerospace Laboratory of Japan [NAL], which was devoted to the research and development of next-generation aerospace technology, merged to form the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [JAXA].) The ISAS had a scientific interest in the project, and NASDA was interested from the perspective of expanding the sphere of human activity. Because the interests of the two organizations coincided, the Selene project was begun as a first full-fledged joint project. If everything goes according to schedule, the Selene should be launched in about two years’ time.

Future Schedule
Another mission that is almost definite is the Bepi Colombo project to send a probe to Mercury. This is being undertaken as Japan’s first full-scale joint project with the ESA. And one more that is waiting its turn is the Planet-C project, which would be a satellite to study the atmosphere of Venus.

Anyway, that was a brief historical review of developments up to the Hayabusa and also a little further along the road.

Engineering Technology of the Hayabusa
Next I would like to explain a few of the engineering technologies that the Hayabusa is aiming for.

(1) Electric propulsion
The first is electric propulsion. Usually, in order for an object to move forward, something has to be discharged behind. Then it moves forward in reaction to this force. This system applies to also rockets. A normal rocket burns fuel, discharges it behind, and moves forward in reaction. The material that is discharged behind the rocket is called the propellant. It is fuel that is being burnt, so in normal chemical-propulsion rockets the fuel and the propellant are the same. The burnt fuel is discharged behind the rocket. In the case of electric propulsion, however, the fuel and the propellant are not together. The propellant is ionized, then electrically accelerated and discharged. The energy source for this is not fuel but generation by solar rays. In the case of chemicals, there is only the chemical energy carried by the fuel itself. But in the case of electric propulsion, the vehicle can take in energy from outside and apply this to the propellant.

The merit of this type of propulsion is that the propellant is able to generate great force. I don’t mean actual force, but something like force multiplied by time. The potential capacity possessed by the propellant itself is extremely large as it gets energy from outside. We can say that a large maneuver is possible with just a little propellant. The demerit is small acceleration. If you try to obtain a large acceleration force, you need a big electrical power source, which itself becomes heavy and therefore slows down the acceleration. Accordingly, you cannot reach an acceleration of 1G [gravity]. So it cannot be used for launching from Earth; it can only be used after the launch into space. I just want you to remember that with this system the fuel consumption is small. Although it takes time, electric propulsion is advantageous for spacecraft that require a large consumption of fuel or propellant. In particular, this technology that is being used in the Hayabusa has been developed with the focus on missions that last for a long time. This is the first such experiment in the world. The operating time is already the longest in the world.

(2) Autonomous navigation
The second is autonomous navigation. When a spacecraft goes as far as 300 million kilometers away, the margin of error is too large, and it is impossible to measure its position from Earth or its proximity to the objective with enough accuracy. In that case, the spacecraft itself must automatically carry out measurements of its position relative to the target asteroid, camera observations and distance measurements, and move accordingly. Moreover, signals between Earth and the spacecraft take as long as 15 minutes, so there would not be time for people on the ground to make observations of both the spacecraft and the asteroid and then make the craft move.

(3) Sample collecting method
The third, naturally, is the method of collecting samples. The collection of samples is causing us difficulties this time as well. The fact is that from the time of departure we just did not know what the conditions on the asteroid were like. Since we did not know whether the surface was hard or soft, we had to think of a method that would go well in either case. In the end what we employed was a touch-and-go system with a tube that is open to the bottom. When the tube hits the surface, a metal ball is released from the top at a speed of 300 meters per second. When that ball hits the surface, fragments fly up from the surface. Since there is no gravity, they fly into the tube, which captures them in a canister for return. We have confirmed the functions of this system in experiments on planes in a state of zero gravity. The probe will make a second attempt to collect samples today and tomorrow [November 25 and 26].

In the previous operation [November 20], the probe really did go right up to that stage, but the ball was not released to cause the fragments to fly up and be captured for return. In the process of descent, the sensor released a signal that it had detected some kind of obstruction. There is a possibility that, with an obstruction, the sudden movement of returning would have damaged the probe, so as soon as the sensor picked up the obstruction, an order was released to terminate the sequence after that. That meant that the operation of collecting samples did not take place. The second attempt today and tomorrow will be the last. It is extremely difficult. Two wheels out of the three that control the probe’s posture have broken, and this is being covered by another system that consumes fuel. In other words, the probe is consuming fuel that it shouldn’t really be using, so we are now worried that there might not be enough fuel left to ensure its return to Earth.

(4) Reentry
The fourth technological challenge is the probe’s return to Earth. Its reentry will involve an unprecedented speed. The speed will be greater than that resulting for a return from the Moon, so the environment will be extremely severe indeed.

Features of Exploration by the Hayabusa
The main feature of this mission was the fact that the surface of the Itokawa asteroid was much more rugged than we had imagined. Moreover, there seem to be an extremely large number of small ups and downs. When the probe approached the asteroid, we realized for the first time that it would be difficult to find a good place for landing. There were various other difficulties as well. One person described it as trying to land a jumbo jet on a moving Grand Canyon. Among all the various missions taking place around the world, I think that this mission is one of the most ambitious, involving a full set of objectives. In other words, it is a mission with the highest number of challenges, including rendezvous using electric propulsion and the collection of samples for return.

Japan's Space Development

(1) Rockets
A succession of Japanese rockets ended in failure. Two H-IIA rockets were unsuccessful, and then the M-V rocket also continued the pattern until at last there was a recovery in March of this year, and the situation is back to normal. At the moment emphasis is being placed on improving reliability at the launching stage. A rocket, after all, is a very important piece of hardware. If a satellite fails, you lose just the one satellite. But if a rocket fails, you lose everything. So it was a very difficult situation indeed. To prevent this, the most effective thing is probably to have a certain number of rocket launches. We think it is important to ensure reliability by carrying out a large number of launches. Therefore, our idea at the moment is that we need to have at least about three launches a year.

(2) User- and needs-led development
One more important thing is that space development must be user-led, or needs-led, rather than being led by the development of various technologies as we have had so far. There are various aspects here, such as disaster surveillance, communications, and broadcasting. The important direction is to promote uses of space that contribute to national life.

Thoughts About Space Development
From now on I would like to give some of my personal opinions. In space development, I think that it is important to demonstrate a country’s sense of presence, such as its international contribution. Also, my personal belief is that it is its frontier character that makes space what it is. Of course, there is the idea of user-led space development, and of course we must do things that contribute to people’s lives. But I feel that there is a limit to asking for support only for practical benefits. There are, I think, two practical uses of space. One is the microgravity environment; the other is getting a bird’s-eye view of Earth as a whole. As you know, the former is struggling to move forward. But the latter, the bird’s-eye view of Earth, has already led to applications in the form of communications and the global positioning system [GPS], so I think it will be difficult to get any new enthusiastic support for this. Certainly, if this aspect disappears and there is a lot of dissatisfaction, however, it probably will not lead to any strong positive support from now on.

The image of a dream goes with space development like a kind of conditional reflex, but I feel that in terms of what this actually means, the image is really becoming hollow. I personally believe that how to include this dream aspect in a balanced manner, how to incorporate it as an actual condition, is one of the important issues that we face.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

Q: I have three questions relating to the Moon. There seems to be a race going on to reach the Moon. President [George W.] Bush of the United States said he wants to send people to the Moon by 2018, and the Chinese said they want to reach the Moon by 2017. Why is the Moon gaining so much attention once again? Why are nations competing so furiously to reach the Moon? And what are Japan’s expectations and goals? What is the driving force behind the race? And what role is the military playing in this game? For China and the United States especially, but also for Japan, the security perspective is always there in space development. What are your comments on this point?

A: I will answer about Japan. Regarding other countries, I am only in a position to speculate. In fact, Japan’s lunar project came about almost entirely independently. Under the leadership of the Space Activities Commission, Japan conducted an investigation on the lunar exploration project. Now the Selene project is attempting to realize the first part of the studies made at that time. The Bush vision of lunar exploration came out quite a long time after that, although I believe that we must think of them as complementary in a way. The United States has the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter [LRO] project, and I hear that there is already talk about establishing a sort of complementarity between the LRO and the Selene. The issue of how the Selene will be correlated with the whole Bush project is currently being considered.

Regarding the question of why the United States has returned to the lunar project, my simple impression is that the concept of the frontier is basic in the United States, and when things become awkward, they rush back to this concept. That is my impression, and I think that is what is happening this time. In other words, when they reach a dead end, there is always the frontier to go back to, and the nearest and most accessible frontier is the Moon or Mars. That is my feeling, anyway.

Regarding the role of the military, we probably must include the factor of national security in the space development of Japan as well. However, there is also a Diet resolution saying that Japan’s space development shall be nonmilitary, and that aspect has been strictly adhered to. We must advance things within this context. As an interpretation above this resolution, though, there is also the theory of generalization, by which we do not mind if a certain technology is used widely in general, and then it can also be used by the Self-Defense Forces.

Q: JAXA President Keiji Tachikawa recently came to the Foreign Correspondents’ Club, and when asked if the budget pinch threatened the very existence of Japan’s space development program, he in essence said yes and promised to do more to get more money. You said that you wanted to secure at least three launches per year. The nuance of that statement is that you would like to have more, but three is an absolute minimum, and you probably won’t get any more money than that. Is that correct?

A: That is correct.

Q: Recently China’s space development has been attracting attention. How does Japan see that? Do you think about things like the space development race?

A: I am not really very conscious about competition. However, I think that there probably are people out there who are conscious of competition.

Q: Why is it that you are not conscious of this as competition?

A: I am not saying that I am not conscious of it at all. But if you are asking me what I think about the recent manned flight, I must say that such manned flights do not really impress me.

Q: What do you think is the possible success rate for the Hayabusa’s landing this evening?

A: The model reply would probably be that we will do our best, but we do not know the percentage figure. This is a question and answer that always comes round. With something being done for the first time, it is perhaps reassuring to give a percentage, but what meaning does it have? Even if I did give a figure, it would only be a subjective reply. When Professor Junichiro Kawaguchi, the project manager for this mission, told the press just before the first trial that it would be extremely difficult to find a narrow place and land there, he was asked what he thought was the chance of things going well, and his answer was one in three. But I think this is an extremely subjective figure. Actually, on that part of the mission, we succeeded at the first attempt. The Hayabusa found an appropriate place and succeeded in landing. So if we asked him now, I don’t know how confident he is, but the figure would probably be a little higher.

I would like to add a comment about the manned flight that I mentioned just now in order to avoid misunderstanding. I personally believe that the frontier is important, but it is not necessarily the case that humans have to go there. I would be excited enough if an exploration device, which is an extension of ourselves, goes there. But please do not misunderstand me. I am not saying that I don’t like China’s way of doing things.

Q: If the Hayabusa fails to collect samples today, what will happen after that?

A: I don’t think it has the extra power to try once more, so it will probably return.

Q: In that case, will this project be assessed as having failed? Or rather than a complete failure, will it be evaluated as having contributed to the development of various new technologies?

A: Since I am relatively close to this project, it is rather difficult for me to reply. But I think it can be called a success. Originally it was positioned as an engineering experiment to bring back samples from a small body in the future. The aim was to acquire engineering technology, not just to see whether it would bring back samples.

Through the accumulation of efforts so far, we have experienced a first in the world. I would highly praise the strength of the team, which has succeeded in overcoming various problems that have occurred during the project. There are many people who love nothing more than a failure, but I would like you to properly evaluate this point. Otherwise, we would have to challenge only unexciting things that would guarantee 100 percent success and 100/100 marks. And if we did that, everyone would become cowardly. Some things should definitely be achieved, and other things we should attempt. I hope that you understand this point.

Q: I just want to go back to the budget question again. If you want to have the three launches a year, could you give me just an idea – I don’t know actually how big the budget is – but what percentage would be necessary to raise the budget to secure these three launches? And you mentioned the manned-flight missions by China and also the United States. Is that a topic in Japan, or is it something that Japan is just not interested in?

A: Regarding the budget, the three launches are not everything. There are many other things that we want to do. So recently JAXA President Tachikawa said that he wanted \250 billion. There is a large gap at present. From now on there are various things that have to be done, and among them there are various issues, such as how to position the International Space Station. There’s quite a gap between past amounts and the amount that we hope for.

Regarding manned flights, it is a fact that the Council for Science and Technology Policy [CSTP] has commented that it is thinking about manned flights in the future. The CSTP did not make such comments before, but I don’t think the discussions have reached the stage of specifically when and how. There is no deciding factor in manned flights. From the point of view of practical use, some people say that there are some things that really cannot be done except by humans, but I don’t think there is so much. And then the discussion becomes emotional, and there is no way to reach a conclusion, no deciding factor. I said just now than we can carry out adequate explorations with unmanned flights, but at the same time I also quite understand the view that an exploration is only an exploration if it is conducted by a person. Still, in order to carry out a manned flight from beginning to end, you need a kind of driving force at the starting line, and I don’t think that kind of motivation exists in Japan at the moment. In the United States, at such times the whole nation comes together at the starting point. And in China as well, regardless of whether there is anything like a frontier spirit, there is a great amount of enthusiasm at the moment for going ahead with manned flights.

Q: It’s not that I like mistakes, but it seems that Japan’s probes, satellites, and so on, although they carry a lot of wonderful state-of-the-art technology, often end up with malfunctions in some important parts. In the case of the Suzaku satellite, there was something wrong with the x-ray micro-calorimeter. And in the case of the Hayabusa, important reaction wheels have broken down, and this is having an impact on its landing. Why do such things happen? If it is because of a lack of experience, wouldn’t it be better to carry out space development with a policy of accumulating experience through a lot of trials and errors using more low-cost but definite technology?

A: It’s difficult to talk about failures, because failures occur in many different ways. There really is no panacea against failure. For example, in the case of the Suzaku, that was something that occurred for the first time. It was something that we had just not thought about beforehand. No matter how many low-cost operations you might conduct, the problem will not surface unless you actually test the limits of the capabilities.

The current problem with the Hayabusa concerns a component. Unfortunately, the malfunctioning component was not a tailor-made technology for the Hayabusa. Unlike the marker, sampling, and optical navigation equipment on board, the wheels are generally available parts. It is very disappointing that they broke down. This failure can be said to have raised the more universal issue of how to promote the domestic supply of common equipment.

It’s really very difficult to talk about failure. After the fact, you can say, “What a thing to happen!” It might be a very complex problem that would have been difficult to solve even beforehand, but there are also very simple mistakes that arise. The difference between success and failure lies in whether you can spot these potential problems beforehand. In Japan it is difficult, because once you have failed, you really are not given an opportunity to respond to the criticism. As I said, there is no panacea. But the true strength of an organization lies in its ability to check problems beforehand. And in addition, I think the crucial difference is whether or not you have people with the capability of spotting a potential problem before it occurs.

* Given on November 25, 2005, at the Foreign Press Center/Japan. This paper is reserved for internal use; any reproduction or quotation is forbidden without prior permission from the FPC. 　　 (c)FPC 2005